Energía A Debate

Energía a Debate / Oilprice.com

21 de enero de 2017 – Los precios del petróleo terminaron sin cambios esta semana, pero cayeron el viernes, cuando un aumento en la producción en campos de shale y un informe pesimista de inventarios presionaron los precios del Brent y WTI. Los inventarios de crudo aumentaron en 2.4 millones de barriles/día, los de gasolina crecieron en 6 millones de barriles y las cifras de producción petrolera en Estados Unidos evidenciaron un repunte en los campos de extracción de shale, como puede verse en el fuerte aumento este viernes en el número de equipos perforando . (Baker Hughes rig count). Algunos analistas opinaron que el precio del crudo caerá por debajo de los 50 dólares por barril si la OPEP inclumple sus expectativas de un recorte de producción.

Oil was flat this week, but prices fell on Friday as rising U.S. shale production and a bearish inventory report continued to put pressure on WTI and Brent. Crude oil inventories rose by another 2.4 million barrels, gasoline stocks jumped by nearly 6 million barrels, and upstream production figures provided further evidence that U.S. shale output is coming back, supported by today's huge rig count increase . Some analysts said prices could fall below $50 per barrel, if OPEC fails to deliver on production cut expectations.

Oil price to fall below $50 if OPEC fails to deliver. A new CNBC survey of energy forecasters finds that experts believe that oil prices will fall from today?s levels if the OPEC cuts do not materialize. Many analysts have pegged the expected compliance rate of OPEC members at about 80 percent, which translates to roughly 1 million barrels of oil per day taken off the market. Others argue that the oil market has become unduly optimistic. “The recent rally in oil prices above $50 rests more on faith than fact: no hard data on compliance around pledged supply cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC countries will emerge until February” Harry Tchilinguirian, global head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas, told CNBC . He forecasts Brent to average just $47 per barrel in the first quarter. And he isn?t the only one. “I'm convinced that prices will fall through the year as the market recognizes that OPEC is not complying, Russia does not comply at all, U.S. shale recovers massively thanks to some steps of the Trump administration,” Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank, said.

IEA: shale coming back, will lead to oil price downturn. The IEA upgraded its estimate for rising U.S. shale production this year, projecting output will increase by 500,000 bpd by the end of 2017, which will translate to an increase of 170,000 bpd averaged over the year. In addition, Brazil and Canada will chip in another 415,000 bpd, mainly from large projects planned years ago. The Paris-based energy agency says that OPEC cuts could lead to significant inventory drawdowns of about 0.7 mb/d, tightening the market in the first half of the year and leading to increases in crude prices. But beyond that, rising non-OPEC production could cause oil prices to fall back again towards the second half of the year. At a minimum, greater price volatility is set to return, the IEA says.